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[financial abstract] Changbao Co., Ltd. specializes in the production of small and medium-sized seamless steel tubes, mainly oil well tubes, boiler tubes, occupy high gross profits, oil and gas Capex growth is expected in the future, thermal power boom will continue. The company is actively transforming, increasing investment in high-end production lines and R & D, and launching precision tubes and special materials projects for new energy vehicles, which are expected to make significant profit growth. It is estimated that the EPS in 24-26 years will be 0 respectively.Roulettelightning. 88 、 0Roulettelightning.99, 1.10 yuan, covering for the first time to give a buy rating. Risk tips include seven major risks, such as lower-than-expected investments.

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[Changbao Co., Ltd.: focus on the production of small and medium caliber seamless steel tubes, downstream demand is expected to drive the growth of the company] Changbao Co., Ltd., an enterprise specializing in the production of small and medium caliber seamless steel tubes, with its two main products, oil well tubes and boiler tubes, realizeRoulettelightningHigh awareness of the brand and high proportion of exports. The company has a long history, has been established for more than 60 years, is located in the middle of the industrial chain, upstream raw materials are mainly bars, downstream customers cover oil and gas, boilers, machinery and other fields of well-known enterprises at home and abroad. Despite the challenges such as the epidemic, Changbao still shows that under the uncertainty of the external environmentRoulettelightningThe quality has changed. The company has increased its investment in fixed assets since 2018 and is committed to improving the advanced production line with high-end and high efficiency. In terms of research and development, Changbao shares reached an all-time high in 2023 in new markets and new customer development and R & D costs. Although the company's ROE was less than 5% in 2019 and 2020 due to the epidemic, the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy and the rise in commodity raw material prices, ROE reached 16% in 2023 with the recovery of downstream demand and the signing of new orders. In the field of new energy, Changbao actively launched the precision tube project of 50, 000 tons of new energy vehicles and the project of 8500 tons of special materials for new energy and semiconductors in 2023. It is expected that the completion of the two projects will bring about 1.3 billion of the company's output value. It is expected to significantly improve the company's profitability and high-end transformation. According to the forecast, from 2024 to 2026, the EPS (earnings per share) of Changbao shares will be 0.88 yuan, 0.99 yuan and 1.10 yuan respectively. Compared with companies in the same industry, the price-to-earnings ratio in 2024 is 10 times, so the target price of Changbao shares is set at 8.80 yuan. Based on this analysis, the buy rating is covered for the first time. However, the risks also exist. The potential risks faced by the company include lower-than-expected capital expenditure on downstream oil and gas and thermal power plants, lower-than-expected progress in product research and development and customer certification, lower-than-expected progress in precision tube and special pipe projects for new energy vehicles, lower-than-expected sales and profit margins for new projects, fluctuations in raw material prices, substantial fluctuations in exchange rates and changes in the export environment, and lower-than-expected macroeconomic performance. When considering investing in Changbao shares, investors need to comprehensively evaluate the market outlook, company strategy and potential risks in order to make wise investment decisions.