Source: coal horizon

Recently, the A-share market once again staged a "flying coal" market, "Middle Eastern tycoons" Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, domestic institutional funds such as social security funds, hundreds of billions of private equity have opened the mode of increasing positions.

For the future performance of non-ferrous metals, coal plate, the major securities firms have given a clear optimistic point of view, and even said that coal or beyond Maotai, will open a long-term bubble market.

With the disclosure of the financial reports of listed companies, we can see that domestic and foreign institutional funds and even well-known investors are also increasing positions in the non-ferrous metals and coal sectors.

For example, in Zijin Mining's latest major shareholder list, the "Middle Eastern tycoon" Abu Dhabi increased its position by 315.Footballworldcup2022asiaUBS completed a new heavy position of 149.0361 million shares, and the latest holdings of China value Fund (Exchange), HHLR Management Co., Ltd., of Hillhouse Capital are the same as in the previous reporting period.

In the coal sector, the Kuwait Government Investment Agency, which is also a "Middle Eastern tycoon", also invested heavily in Xinji Energy and Mountain Coal International during the fourth quarter of 2023, with a total of 15.0163 million shares and 12.3956 million shares respectively. Xinji Energy's share price has also risen more than 70 per cent since the beginning of this year.

For the coal sector, founder Securities is given beyond Maotai's point of view. According to the latest report, the property cycle is declining, expected yields are falling twice, and the main line of market trading is switching from "core assets" such as spirits to "scarce assets" such as coal.

Open source securities also said that the coal price bottom stage, the dividend yield passively increased will be more significant allocation value. The logic of high dividend investment in coal stocks is still the main line. under the current environment, funds pay more attention to the certainty of investment returns, coal high dividends and sustainability are in line with the preference of capital allocation, and the plate is expected to meet the starting point of re-layout. attract more capital allocation than the last round.

Affected by the continuous reduction in coal prices since the beginning of the year, people in the industry are calling for a reduction in coal production. Among them, there are the most rumors of production reduction in Shanxi. How on earth will regulators and decision-makers handle and control the overall situation of the coal industry this year?Footballworldcup2022asia?

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2024, the raw coal output of national enterprises was 705 million tons,-4.2 percent year on year, and the national coal production decreased compared with the same period last year. Among them, the tightening of safety supervision in Shanxi Province, superimposed "check three super" and other policy effects, the effect of reducing production is obvious. From January to February, the output of raw coal was 177 million tons, a sharp drop of 18.1% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the General Office of the Shanxi Provincial people's Government recently issued the "work Plan for stable Coal production and supply in Shanxi Province in 2024," proposing that under the premise of ensuring safe production, the province's coal output will be stable at about 1.3 billion tons in 2024, about 75 million tons less than in 2023.

After reading the news of the production reduction in Shanxi, we will return to the coal production data and annual work targets for 2024 that have been revealed in the provincial work reports of various localities after the end of the two sessions. From the above picture, we can also see clearly that apart from the reduction in coal production in Shanxi this year, the other four major coal producing areas will continue to increase production plans. For example, Xinjiang's coal output in 2023 is 457 million tons, and this year's planned coal production will reach 500 million tons. In addition, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Guizhou will all increase their production.

Therefore, some economic experts have analyzed that in order to achieve the national economic growth target of about 5% in 2024, the country's total coal output will still increase slightly this year. Because, the coal industry chain is closely bound with the domestic economic development, under the current national conditions, if the economy is better, the amount of coal used can not be reduced first, and we will disassemble it later.

In addition, you can take a look at the picture above. These are the top 13 cities in coal production in 2023. First of all, it is true that these cities have made important contributions to the safe and stable supply of energy throughout the country. However, coal prices have been high and difficult in recent years, and the cities and bosses that really make money basically gather here or are closely related to it. Therefore, at present, many coal mines in major coal-producing provinces often stop work and reduce production. The main motivation is to keep local coal prices rising steadily. In this way, we can make a living, and quickly increase the local GDP growth rate.

This round of domestic coal prices are falling rapidly for many reasons. First, the continued weakness in the real estate market has led to lower demand, which has contributed to the fall in coal prices to some extent. Second, the government has suspended infrastructure projects in some heavily indebted provinces, and the recent sharp fluctuations in commodity prices have triggered a series of chain reactions that are affecting all aspects of the economy and putting huge pressure on coal prices.

At the same time, people engaged in the coal trade between China and Russia pointed out that due to the sanctions imposed by the United States and the United States, it was difficult for the Bank of China to collect payment from Russia, which had a serious impact on the domestic coal import business. In the face of this complex international situation, we must be alert to the risks that may arise in the future. If the road of maritime coal trade and transportation is suddenly blocked, how can we ensure a sustained and stable domestic coal supply? Therefore, we need to respond carefully to market changes and take measures to ensure the stability of domestic coal supply in order to address any challenges that may arise.