[both Chinese and US CPI data exceed expectations.LivecrapsThe US dollar index remains high, and the offshore RMB returns to 7.Livecraps.25 level, experts believe that the importance of countercyclical adjustment policy has increased]

On April 11, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States increased to 3. 3% in March.Livecraps.5%, higher than expected 3.4%LivecrapsMeanwhile, China's CPI fell 1.0% month-on-month in March, slightly up 0.1% from a year earlier, and its performance was lower than expected. As a result, the dollar index broke through 105 and the offshore RMB adjusted to 7.2550 against the dollar.

Against this backdrop, market analysts point out that the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in June. The interest rate on the US 10-year Treasury note exceeded 4.5 per cent. Analysts expect China to cut interest rates in the third quarter, or slightly earlier.

The dollar index is bullish, gold may not fall.

Us CPI growth rebounded to 3.5 per cent year-on-year in March, while core CPI growth remained at 3.8 per cent. According to the analysis of China International Capital Corporation's report, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in June has weakened, and it is expected that it will cut interest rates only once this year. Huatai Securities (601688) macro team believes that the two interest rate cuts may be a reasonable hub for interest rate cuts this year.

In terms of the impact of large categories of assets, Huatai Securities believes that gold may fall back with the rise of the dollar. However, China International Capital Corporation and China Galaxy (601881) analysis pointed out that the price of gold may continue to rise. The China Galaxy report believes that despite the strengthening of the dollar, the price of gold has not fallen sharply and there is still room for upside throughout the year.

The RMB is under pressure but basically stable, and there is still room for monetary policy.

China's CPI fell 1.0 per cent month-on-month in March, up 0.1 per cent from a year earlier and 2.7 per cent from a year earlier, both below expectations. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that CPI declined seasonally and the year-on-year increase slowed down. Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank (600016) believes that the price of industrial products has not improved significantly due to factors such as sufficient production capacity and weak downstream demand.

The market view is that China's slow economic recovery has an impact on the exchange rate. A stronger dollar puts pressure on non-US currencies and capital flows. However, Zhou Maohua of Everbright Bank (601818) said that the optimistic outlook for the RMB exchange rate was mainly due to the sound recovery of the domestic economy. Wen Bin expects CPI and PPI to rebound until the fourth quarter. Under the downward pressure of inflation, the importance of counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy increases. Hexun self-selected Stock Writer risk Tip: the above content is only the views of the author or guest, does not represent any position of Hexun, and does not constitute any investment advice related to Hexun. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products according to their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers if necessary. Hexun tries its best but cannot confirm the authenticity, accuracy and originality of the above content, and Hexun does not make any guarantee or commitment.