News summary

Stable raw salt at the cost endTiger'sTroveTrekProfits of Shandong chlor-alkali units increased; supply side caustic soda output declinedTiger'sTroveTrek, operating rates are expected to decline next week; demand-side alumina production capacity is limited, non-aluminum downstream demand is sluggish; short-term market volatility.

Newsletter text

[Shandong chlor-alkali plants are rising, and raw salt prices are stable to support profit increases]

The price of raw salt remained stable, and the strong performance of the PVC industry drove the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor-alkali units to show an upward trend. Caustic soda output dropped slightly month-on-month. Seven units are expected to enter the maintenance period next week, and six units will be restarted at the same time, which is expected to lead to a further decline in operating rates. Although the maintenance of Shandong units has little impact on the main eastern producing areas, the weak growth of downstream demand has resulted in the inability of 32 alkali companies. Overhaul and relief of inventory pressure in Jiangsu have pushed liquid soda prices to continue to rise.

[Soda stocks are stable, exports fall sharply]

In April, export volumes of both liquid alkali and solid alkali decreased significantly, and it is expected that high-concentration alkali products may turn to the domestic market. At present, the inventory of caustic soda remains stable, and it is unlikely that it will be significantly removed from the warehouse in the short term.

[Alumina production is expected to increase and resume production, but production capacity release is limited]

Although the alumina industry is expected to increase production, due to mining restrictions, production capacity is difficult to be released in the short term. At the same time, it is expected that subsequent alumina imports may also decrease. Demand in the pulp and printing and dyeing industries remains sluggish, and viscose staple fiber units are still under maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates in non-aluminum downstream industries this week.

[Comprehensive analysis, short-term market forecasts are volatile]

On the whole, the stability of the cost side and the expectation of shrinking the supply side, as well as the temporary difficulty of positive factors in downstream demand, it is expected that market conditions will be dominated by shocks in the short term.