Source: Guoyuan Futures Research

The sales situation in the May Day consumption season is not as expected. Since the fruits of this season came on the market, the supply of deviated goods has always been not smooth. After the Qingming Festival, under the pressure of going to the warehouse, it forced the production area to give way to the price. However, due to the poor quality of this quarter, the remaining low-priced goods in the warehouse after entering April.CandycrushfriendsfreedownloadThe quality has declined, resulting in high sorting costs, so the price reduction in the production area is not directly fed back to the selling price in the sales area. In addition, during the May Day holiday, although the seasonal fruit is in the market window, for applesCandycrushfriendsfreedownloadThe substitution has weakened, but the overall performance of the fruit market is poor, and the performance-to-price ratio of apples is relatively low. The new season fruit has entered the flowering and fruit setting period, and the flower quantity and fruit setting condition is good this year. The high purchase price and low quality in this quarter make it more difficult for most traders to sell, and it is common to ship goods below the acquisition cost. Superimposed production expectations for the new quarter are improving, and the market has lowered expectations for off-balance prices. Yuanyue 2410 contracts will be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, there is a significant polarization in the prices of good and bad goods this season, and the prices of good goods are relatively stable. After the machinery warehouse is cleared in May, there will be a certain support for the price of the far month, and there will be a rebound in the future, and the space for the fall in the far month is limited. The suggested range is 7000-9000 yuan per ton.

I. Market Review

Boosted by the reserve demand for May Day, the short-term downward trend in prices eased somewhat, but during the May Day period, the performance of the fruit consumer market was poor, Apple sales were lower than expected, and the price pressure weakened as consumption fell further after the holiday. Last week, Apple's main 2410 contract price was as high as 7644 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 7490 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 7586 yuan / ton, an increase of 1%.Candycrushfriendsfreedownload.39%.

II. Analysis of Apple's fundamentals

twoCandycrushfriendsfreedownload. 1

The number of cars arriving increased during the May Day stock preparation period.

As of April 30, the average price of half-and-a-half commodities in Luochuan was 3.6 yuan per jin, the price was the same as last week. The average price of Qixia 8 Grade I and II is 3.0 yuan / jin, and the price is 0.2 yuan / jin lower than last week. According to the statistics of the Fruit Circulation Association, as of April 30, 2024, the national average wholesale price of Fuji was 8.38 yuan / kg, down 0.19 yuan / kg compared with the same period last week. As of April 30, the average daily arrival of 28 vehicles in Guangdong's main Apple Wholesale Market increased during the period of stock preparation before May Day.

2.2

The deviation source is slow to leave the warehouse.

According to Zhuochuang statistics, as of April 25, the national cold storage inventory is 4.0615 million tons, the removal rate is 54.48%, and the total weekly output is 355700 tons. Shipments are lower than the previous week.

Among them, the capacity ratio of cold storage in Shandong area was 36.32%, a decrease of 2.57%. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi cold storage was 29.15%, which was 3.34% lower than that of the previous week. The production area gradually cleared the warehouse, the quality of the remaining low-cost supply declined, the enthusiasm of May Day merchants in preparing goods was not high, the selection of good goods was sent to the market on demand, the deviation source was slowly released from the warehouse, and the overall shipment volume declined compared with the previous month.

2.3

The export price advantage increases with the increase of low-price supply.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in March 2004, China's apple exports were 94400 tons, up 75.13% from the same period last year and 32.4% from the same period last year. March exports were both significantly higher than the same period last year, mainly because the Spring Festival holiday in February had an impact on shipments. the export of fresh apples has a seasonal pattern, and the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export season. Coupled with the further decline in the price of goods suitable for export and sufficient supply, the price advantage of foreign trade has increased. However, China's annual exports account for about 2-3% of the total production capacity, and its consumption mainly depends on domestic demand. in the context of depressed domestic demand, the improvement of foreign trade is limited to support Apple.

2.4

When the fruit enters the market window, the pressure is reduced when the apple is replaced.

As of April 30, the average price of sugar oranges was 7 yuan / kg, which was the same as last week. In April, the supply of citrus has gradually shrunk and prices have gone up, while summer fruits have not yet reached the period of concentrated listing, and the main alternative fruits will enter a window for listing, which will be beneficial to storage-resistant fruits such as apples. The pressure on the replacement of medium and deviated supply of apples has been reduced. However, around May Day this year, the overall performance of the fruit market during the festival is poor, while the quality deviation of apples this season, the performance-to-price ratio is not outstanding.

III. Market summary

Deviation low-price supply into the late clearance, quality decline, finishing costs rise, so the actual sales price in the sales area has not been significantly reduced with the weakening of prices in the production area. The delivery of goods at the May Day terminal is not as expected, the deviation source is slow, and the output of the new fruit season is expected to be better, so the long-month contract is under short-term pressure. In the medium term, after the clearance of deviation sources is over, the good goods with a small proportion of good goods have a certain support for the far-month price, and the far-month 2410 contract has limited room to fall. The suggested range is 7000-9000 yuan per ton.