China Business Daily

Our reporter du Lijuan reports from Beijing.

On the basis of the positive macro-policy tone, the second quarter entered the period of policy deployment and landing observation.

In accordance with the requirements of the Government work report, 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued in 2024, specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity-building in key areas. Since the beginning of April, securities firms and rating agencies have also anchored the issuing nodes of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.CrashbandicootremasteredIn the second quarter.

"combined with the choice of monetary policy tools, we expect ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to be issued in batches in the second quarter, while the central bank is more likely to provide liquidity support by extending the volume of MLF." Guotai Junan macro co-chief analyst Wang Hao predicted.

As an important starting point of active fiscal policy, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds play an important role in promoting growth and stable investment. In the view of the market, this year's ultra-long-term treasury bonds may be limited by the annual treasury bond issuance plan, which is not "quantitative easing" in a simple sense.

Centralized deployment in the second quarter

"in order to form a physical workload at an early date, we expect that 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued centrally in the second quarter. Combined with the issuance of special bonds, the special treasury bonds will be led by the central government, which will speed up the process of issuing and landing projects." Li Xifeng, a researcher in the Research and Development Department of China Securities Pengyuan rating, said.

The 2024 "Government work report" pointed out that in order to systematically solve the problem of funding for some major projects in the process of building a powerful country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting from this year. Special for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year.

Special treasury bonds mainly refer to treasury bonds with specific uses issued periodically in a specific period. China issued special treasury bonds three times in 1998, 2007 and 2020 respectively. Unlike in the past, this year's "Government work report" emphasizes ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.

"the ultra-long term mainly represents the maturity of bond issuance. Under normal circumstances, the issuance period of long-term treasury bonds in China is about 10 years, but the ultra-long term represents that the issuance period is in principle longer than 10 years. " A finance and tax official explained this.

With regard to bond investment, Zheng Jie, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, has previously said that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will focus on major and difficult issues in the process of building a great power and national rejuvenation. "with preliminary consideration, we will focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, integrated urban-rural development, coordinated regional development, food and energy security, and high-quality population development." Zheng Zhanjie introduced.

Wind statistics show that Zhejiang, Hunan, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Hebei and other places have been planning ultra-long-term special treasury bonds projects. In accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, has also studied and formulated specific plans to refine and improve the areas of support, and further clarify the requirements of the work.

In terms of the issuance cycle, compared with the special treasury bonds in 2020, the market expects that the 1 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issuance cycle will not be too long.

"judging from the issuance cycle of 1 trillion yuan of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds in 2020, it mainly began to be issued in mid-June of that year and completed before the end of July, which took about one and a half months. We believe that the issue of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will also be relatively fast this year." Li Xifeng said.

In addition, with the continuous improvement of the financial system, the three special treasury bonds in history have gradually transitioned from targeted issuance to market-oriented issuance. Using past experience for reference, this year's 1 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are also more likely to be issued in a market-oriented way.

Li Xifeng believes that issuing in a market-oriented way can not only make the pricing of bonds more fair, but also maximize the rate of return on asset allocation of financial institutions.

"normalized" management of bonds

According to the budget report, 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued this year have been included in the budget of government funds in 2024, which has become an important part of the active fiscal policy.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the budget revenue of the central government fund in 2024 is 4474.Crashbandicootremastered52 million yuan, plus the carry-over income of 39.187 billion yuan last year and the income of 1 trillion yuan from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the total income was 1.486639 trillion yuan. The central government fund has a budget of 1.486639 trillion yuan, of which 871.291 billion yuan is spent at the corresponding level and 615.348 billion yuan is paid to local governments.

Judging from the specific data in the budget report, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are of great significance in alleviating the current financial pressure. Because the investment field of special treasury bonds generally has the characteristics of large construction demand, long investment cycle, and the existing capital channels are difficult to fully meet, and increasing support from the policy side is an effective way to solve the financial pressure. " The above-mentioned financial source said.

At the same time, unlike the long-term construction treasury bonds, the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are not included in the deficit and do not increase the deficit ratio, which helps to ensure fiscal sustainability and increases the flexibility for subsequent macro-control.

Yuan Haixia, a researcher at the China Integrity International Research Institute, said that this year's "Government work report" proposed to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which is an important manifestation of positive financial development under the current economic pressure. "after the extension of the term of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, it can better match the funding needs of key projects, and at the same time, it can also improve the efficiency of financial funds, which will gradually normalize bond issuance."

The reporter learned that due to the shortage of funds, China has adopted the way of issuing additional special treasury bonds to ease the pressure on financial funds. For example, in 1998, 270 billion yuan of special treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance to the four major banks of industry, agriculture, China, and China Construction were mainly used to supplement the capital of the four major state-owned commercial banks. After that, the special treasury bonds in 2020 are also designed to deal with the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy.

On the whole, these treasury bonds have the characteristics of "emergency". Compared with this ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the "Government work report" clearly states that 1 trillion yuan will be given priority this year, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years in the future.

"this means that in the next few years, the central government will also launch the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in due course according to the development needs and the effectiveness of the issue. as to whether this measure will be fixed in an institutionalized way, it also needs to be comprehensively considered in the light of the actual macroeconomic situation." The above-mentioned finance and taxation personage said.

　　中诚信国际指出，超长期特别国债的发行，也表明了中央对积极财政总基调保持乐观的态度，这有利于提振市场信心和稳定预期，并为优化央地债务结构、减轻地方支出压力持续提供了动力。